During my 14-hour session, the table I was with the player in my last post broke up and I moved to another one for the rest of the night. I pushed all-in on the first hand/flop I saw (guy behind me had to have had $300 minimum) and was never down. However, the player in Seat 10 left a mark on my logic that I'm still shaking my head just thinking about:
---My Introduction From Afar---
Seat 10: A-K Mr. 300: ??
One limper in front, Mr. 300 calls, Seat 10 raises to $20, folds to a calling Mr. 300
$45 pot - Flop: K-X-X
Mr. 300 checks, Seat 10 goes all-in for $170ish, Mr. 300 folds, Seat 10 shows A-K
Ok, so he actually hit with A-K and was a little over-zealous about it, it's the first hand I've seen him play. I cut him some slack as I'm mentally puzzled. Harking back to my Scared #1 and Scared #2 posts, only a few hands are calling you and you're not going to like any of them. However, over the course of my time there (I switched to Seat 1 a few minutes in), I found out this was his plan of attack.
Pre-Flop raise to $25 with A-10
Pre-Flop raise to $20 with A-Q
Pre-Flop raise to $35 with A-K, jams on the flop when he completely missed (was called and lost)
I was more confused about the A-10 than anything else, this guy is overvaluing big aces pre-flop and then pricing players out with flop jamming (A professional flop jammer? That's new). Having said that, when the player or players that do call then fold on the flop, he is picking up $20 minimum from them everytime. If not, well, I guess he's content with $20 flop profit or $6-$8 pre-flop profit when no one calls. This hand is one of two times that I went to the flop with him (the other one I missed on the button with J9s):
--Betting Opponents With Premium Hands Out of the Pot---
Stevie: 66 BB: JJ(?) UTG: A-Q(?) Seat 10: KK
UTG limps, limp, fold, Seat 10 raises to $20, Stevie calls, folds to BB who calls, UTG calls
$80 pot - Flop: 9-4-3 (rainbow)
BB and UTG check, Seat 10 goes all-in for well over $200, Stevie thinks for a few seconds and folds, as does BB and UTG, Seat 10 shows his hand
The pro to this hand is that Seat 10 grabbed $56 profit (rake). The other two players said after the hand was over that's what they had (I don't believe until I see, but both sounded truthful about it) and then I said to him, "You don't want my money, that's what you're saying." Seat 10 justified himself by claiming to be betting out the Ace (I didn't detect any sarcasm when he said it), happily building his stack again, and I repeated my stance on the hand...
......And with the post-hand information, he wasn't showing any notion that he missed a golden opportunity here...
If it was just the two of us, I would have tanked longer than I did. I had about $130 or so at the time and with the constantly showing of big Aces pre-flop, I thought it was 50/50 he completely missed, so kudos for the deceptive high pocket pair. But if I call and then either BB or UTG comes along too, then I know I'm screwed. Also, I am not including myself in the premium hand title here, but a part of me felt there was a small chance I was ahead of him, even after my set mine failed...
Next, he's only concerned on that flop about pocket rockets here (I would think, 9's might be a stretch, even the A's might have gone all-in pre-flop). An overpair is going to call a reasonable bet (I'm guessing in the $40-$70 range) and/or, if the player is sharing my line of thinking, raise all-in...FOR him. He gave everyone an easy out of the hand because the reward's not worth the risk. The more money in front of the player on that flop facing that bet, I think it's an even easier fold. Seat 10 has already stated he wants to see both turn and river cards, you're going to risk your big stack/hard day's work on the off-chance he whiffed on that flop?
Lastly, there is only two possible drawing hands here to even consider: 2-5 and 5-6, some open-ended draw. If there's an uber-stack at the table, maybe he dicks around with a gut-shot/inside-straight draw, but those hands didn't call pre-flop. So, it is a high probability, scratch that, all signs point to KK being WAY out in front...
...And he's scared of an Ace...Well, she didn't call, so hurray for a job well done...
Mentally, I was (and still am) dumbfounded and I continued to say to him, "You don't want my money," if I was in a hand and occasionally when no one called pre-flop to his raises. Later, he stopped with the massive raises and kept limping in or betting small once the board came, but I'm getting a headache reviewing this.
Maybe that's his NL Holdem strategy, I don't know, but I can't think of much rewards for chasing everyone out pre-flop and then if someone (or more) has the audacity to see a flop, to either A) make sure they're gone or B) play a massive double-up game that's rarely going to be in your favor...
The Observations of a Non-Holdem Enthusiast
Showing posts with label Scared. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Scared. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Monday, March 18, 2013
$1/2 NL Holdem Players Are Scared - Betting Exhibit A
I wasn't expecting to come back to the topic so soon, but I believe the day I posted I played at the Venetian, I found a clear cut case of overbetting...seriously:
Stevie: JJ Player 1: A-10 h Player 3: 33
Pre-Flop: Fold, Limp, Limp, Stevie Limp, Raise to 12, Fold, Call, Call, Player 3 Call, Fold, Call, Call, Stevie Call
Pot Size: $86
First off, this is one way not to play pocket Jacks...
Second, the raiser was probably in the same boat as I am: Not particularly happy with six opponents seeing the flop. It's an easy call for Player 3 in the big blind, pure pot odds and set mining.
Flop: 3-2-T (rainbow)
Check, Player 3 Check, Check Stevie Check (I want to see what she bets)
Player 1 bets $105
...Wait-What?
Yes, top-pair-top-kicker is a good flop for ATh, but for three-digits? A little over-protecting I believe, but as I referenced before, when you overbet, two kinds of players are generally going to call you:
- A big enough draw to handle it (and 4-5 is just not going to cut it here, sorry folks).
- A better hand (overpair for me and a flopped set for Player 3)
Players start dropping like flies, except for Player 3, who flat calls the bet. Everyone folds to me and after analyzing the situation (and also remembering that, yes, I wrote about this specific situation maybe five hours before I sat down to play), I fold as well. If it was just me, I'd probably would have a decision on my hand, 60/40 to raising her all-in. But what hand is worth justifying a flat $105 bet? A SET. The turn was a blank, Player 3 jammed, and Player 1 called drawing dead (if there was no set, my Jacks would have held up).
It takes courage to make that kind of bet on the flop in the face of six opponents, I give Player 1 that. But there has to be a smaller, more reasonable amount to bet there that would give you more information and risking less of your stack in the process...
...Then again, what am I complaining about? She bets reasonably, I'm stacking off to Player 3...
Stevie: JJ Player 1: A-10 h Player 3: 33
Pre-Flop: Fold, Limp, Limp, Stevie Limp, Raise to 12, Fold, Call, Call, Player 3 Call, Fold, Call, Call, Stevie Call
Pot Size: $86
First off, this is one way not to play pocket Jacks...
Second, the raiser was probably in the same boat as I am: Not particularly happy with six opponents seeing the flop. It's an easy call for Player 3 in the big blind, pure pot odds and set mining.
Flop: 3-2-T (rainbow)
Check, Player 3 Check, Check Stevie Check (I want to see what she bets)
Player 1 bets $105
...Wait-What?
Yes, top-pair-top-kicker is a good flop for ATh, but for three-digits? A little over-protecting I believe, but as I referenced before, when you overbet, two kinds of players are generally going to call you:
- A big enough draw to handle it (and 4-5 is just not going to cut it here, sorry folks).
- A better hand (overpair for me and a flopped set for Player 3)
Players start dropping like flies, except for Player 3, who flat calls the bet. Everyone folds to me and after analyzing the situation (and also remembering that, yes, I wrote about this specific situation maybe five hours before I sat down to play), I fold as well. If it was just me, I'd probably would have a decision on my hand, 60/40 to raising her all-in. But what hand is worth justifying a flat $105 bet? A SET. The turn was a blank, Player 3 jammed, and Player 1 called drawing dead (if there was no set, my Jacks would have held up).
It takes courage to make that kind of bet on the flop in the face of six opponents, I give Player 1 that. But there has to be a smaller, more reasonable amount to bet there that would give you more information and risking less of your stack in the process...
...Then again, what am I complaining about? She bets reasonably, I'm stacking off to Player 3...
Friday, March 15, 2013
$1/2 NL Holdem Players Are Scared - Betting
I can probably make that title all-encompassing with Limit as well, but based on the arguments I've comparing the two games (and my recent sessions at the Venetian), the No-Limit brethren are far, far more scared...
Limit players get grinded into the dust by their anger (repeated, repeated suckouts for $2/4 or $3/6 bets) That's why I gave up $2/4 limit in January. It took me two and a half years of playing it to realize it's a bigger bankroll killer for me than playing Omaha8 and the No Limit games, which are my selective alternatives for cash games in Vegas:
$4/8 Omaha8 - Half Kill (Venetian/Red Rock)
$1/2 No Limit Holdem
$3/6 "Anything But Hold'em" Mix Game (Treasure Island...I will get to this depravity in a later post)
So, my choice, unfortunately, was the lesser of my two evils: $1/2 No Limit, a game I hadn't sat down to play as 1st choice for about 3 years. I still believe the play between it and $2/4 are not that far off. But no, the No-Limit players have one thing paramount over Limit and it's the same argument I've heard for years talking with players on those No-Limit tables:
"In No-Limit, you can protect your hand."
And they are absolutely correct. Yes, you can bet as much money you have on the table. Yes, you can take drastic measures to ensure people fishing for the flush/gut-shot-or-inside straight/two-overcards/any-ace draw pay dearly by over-betting pots. Yes, you can limit the numbers of players who see a flop by betting bigger, as per the following examples:
Limp, Limp, Limp, Raise to 17
Limp, Raise to 15
UTG Raise to 16
Straddle to 4: Limp, Limp, Limp, Limp, Raise to 26 (AJ)
Raise to 8, Call, Call, Call, Call, All-In Bet (over $120) (JJ)
However, my focus is on when all those players fold in response:
The raisers get frustrated when they don't get called (I called the JJ all-in for less with AK of spades)...
Look, there is an inherent risk to playing poker. It does not matter which game you're playing: If the players drawing want to call, whether it's for correct pot odds, implied odds, because they want to see if they hit that straight flush, they will call. It does not matter how much you bet. Having said that:
You don't want to chase them out, you want them to call in those bad situations.
An open-ended straight draw on the flop is roughly 65/35 to get there by the end. Players would much rather have one card to come (4/1) than two, but that shouldn't be an excuse to let fear enter the equation. "I have to protect my hand," says the player in the lead. I argue that these players are over-protecting, like these examples:
Pot Size: $10 Player bets $12 (rainbow)
Pot Size: $20 Player bets $25 (flush draw)
And the bettors get frustrated when there is no action...when they, after the rake, get $8 or $16 profit out of it. These bets are high-risk, no-reward. The only people reasonably calling that bet either have you beat (and that memo will be hitting your desk soon) or have a big enough draw to justify it (and/or implied odds).
Then there's the "limit" portion of our tale, betting so small you're giving plenty of odds to go...or you're gathering little-to-no information from your opponents. This is hand I played a few months back at the Venetian and my low-risk decision turned into a big pot:
Stevie: 2-2 Player: 10-9
Flop: 7-2-T Pot size: $11 (6 players, rainbow) Player bets $10, four players call
Turn: 7-2-T-8 Pot size: $57 (5 players, two hearts) Player bets $15, three players call
River: 7-2-T-8-T Pot size: $127 (4 players) Player bets $25, Stevie raises to $180, Only the Player calls
Value-betting is nice, but giving 4-to-1 odds on a completed straight/flush draw turn card with a mediocre hand is just asking for it. In that spot, what are the odds that all three players are fishing? Chances are one person has the player beat (better 10, slow-played straight...slow-played set in my case). Worse, that river 10...didn't change anything. Inferior kicker that doesn't beat a straight and $25 tells you nothing about your opponents' strength. 6-to-1 odds, maybe an overpair calls, the better 10 will definitely call, the straight is definitely calling, possibly raising, not liking the paired card...but my full house is raising (my judgment call). To compound this, he still called $155 on top with the same potentially better hands in play. Low-risk ($27 invested before river), no-reward (lost $207 total).
My risk was losing the same $27 he invested before the river. If a four-card straight or flush card came on the river, I muck my hand none the wise about the set. If the player doesn't call the raise, none the wiser again. I could have popped it on the turn, leading to (A) possibly isolating the player or (B) the straight re-popping it, requiring me to call most likely. But I took a $27 risk that, if the boat came, I win. His small, little tiny bets (which is also a main theme in $1/2 NL), in that hand, gave him no information about his opponents...and let anyone with any sort of draw in cheap.
It's a delicate, but not that hard of a decision to make: Bet enough to keep them chasing the carrot (building a good pot when they miss), but also enough to make sure they know the stick it's on is a real threat...
Limit players get grinded into the dust by their anger (repeated, repeated suckouts for $2/4 or $3/6 bets) That's why I gave up $2/4 limit in January. It took me two and a half years of playing it to realize it's a bigger bankroll killer for me than playing Omaha8 and the No Limit games, which are my selective alternatives for cash games in Vegas:
$4/8 Omaha8 - Half Kill (Venetian/Red Rock)
$1/2 No Limit Holdem
$3/6 "Anything But Hold'em" Mix Game (Treasure Island...I will get to this depravity in a later post)
So, my choice, unfortunately, was the lesser of my two evils: $1/2 No Limit, a game I hadn't sat down to play as 1st choice for about 3 years. I still believe the play between it and $2/4 are not that far off. But no, the No-Limit players have one thing paramount over Limit and it's the same argument I've heard for years talking with players on those No-Limit tables:
"In No-Limit, you can protect your hand."
And they are absolutely correct. Yes, you can bet as much money you have on the table. Yes, you can take drastic measures to ensure people fishing for the flush/gut-shot-or-inside straight/two-overcards/any-ace draw pay dearly by over-betting pots. Yes, you can limit the numbers of players who see a flop by betting bigger, as per the following examples:
Limp, Limp, Limp, Raise to 17
Limp, Raise to 15
UTG Raise to 16
Straddle to 4: Limp, Limp, Limp, Limp, Raise to 26 (AJ)
Raise to 8, Call, Call, Call, Call, All-In Bet (over $120) (JJ)
However, my focus is on when all those players fold in response:
The raisers get frustrated when they don't get called (I called the JJ all-in for less with AK of spades)...
Look, there is an inherent risk to playing poker. It does not matter which game you're playing: If the players drawing want to call, whether it's for correct pot odds, implied odds, because they want to see if they hit that straight flush, they will call. It does not matter how much you bet. Having said that:
You don't want to chase them out, you want them to call in those bad situations.
An open-ended straight draw on the flop is roughly 65/35 to get there by the end. Players would much rather have one card to come (4/1) than two, but that shouldn't be an excuse to let fear enter the equation. "I have to protect my hand," says the player in the lead. I argue that these players are over-protecting, like these examples:
Pot Size: $10 Player bets $12 (rainbow)
Pot Size: $20 Player bets $25 (flush draw)
And the bettors get frustrated when there is no action...when they, after the rake, get $8 or $16 profit out of it. These bets are high-risk, no-reward. The only people reasonably calling that bet either have you beat (and that memo will be hitting your desk soon) or have a big enough draw to justify it (and/or implied odds).
Then there's the "limit" portion of our tale, betting so small you're giving plenty of odds to go...or you're gathering little-to-no information from your opponents. This is hand I played a few months back at the Venetian and my low-risk decision turned into a big pot:
Stevie: 2-2 Player: 10-9
Flop: 7-2-T Pot size: $11 (6 players, rainbow) Player bets $10, four players call
Turn: 7-2-T-8 Pot size: $57 (5 players, two hearts) Player bets $15, three players call
River: 7-2-T-8-T Pot size: $127 (4 players) Player bets $25, Stevie raises to $180, Only the Player calls
Value-betting is nice, but giving 4-to-1 odds on a completed straight/flush draw turn card with a mediocre hand is just asking for it. In that spot, what are the odds that all three players are fishing? Chances are one person has the player beat (better 10, slow-played straight...slow-played set in my case). Worse, that river 10...didn't change anything. Inferior kicker that doesn't beat a straight and $25 tells you nothing about your opponents' strength. 6-to-1 odds, maybe an overpair calls, the better 10 will definitely call, the straight is definitely calling, possibly raising, not liking the paired card...but my full house is raising (my judgment call). To compound this, he still called $155 on top with the same potentially better hands in play. Low-risk ($27 invested before river), no-reward (lost $207 total).
My risk was losing the same $27 he invested before the river. If a four-card straight or flush card came on the river, I muck my hand none the wise about the set. If the player doesn't call the raise, none the wiser again. I could have popped it on the turn, leading to (A) possibly isolating the player or (B) the straight re-popping it, requiring me to call most likely. But I took a $27 risk that, if the boat came, I win. His small, little tiny bets (which is also a main theme in $1/2 NL), in that hand, gave him no information about his opponents...and let anyone with any sort of draw in cheap.
It's a delicate, but not that hard of a decision to make: Bet enough to keep them chasing the carrot (building a good pot when they miss), but also enough to make sure they know the stick it's on is a real threat...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)