Friday, March 15, 2013

$1/2 NL Holdem Players Are Scared - Betting

I can probably make that title all-encompassing with Limit as well, but based on the arguments I've comparing the two games (and my recent sessions at the Venetian), the No-Limit brethren are far, far more scared...

Limit players get grinded into the dust by their anger (repeated, repeated suckouts for $2/4 or $3/6 bets) That's why I gave up $2/4 limit in January. It took me two and a half years of playing it to realize it's a bigger bankroll killer for me than playing Omaha8 and the No Limit games, which are my selective alternatives for cash games in Vegas:

$4/8 Omaha8 - Half Kill (Venetian/Red Rock)
$1/2 No Limit Holdem
$3/6 "Anything But Hold'em" Mix Game (Treasure Island...I will get to this depravity in a later post)

So, my choice, unfortunately, was the lesser of my two evils: $1/2 No Limit, a game I hadn't sat down to play as 1st choice for about 3 years. I still believe the play between it and $2/4 are not that far off. But no, the No-Limit players have one thing paramount over Limit and it's the same argument I've heard for years talking with players on those No-Limit tables:

"In No-Limit, you can protect your hand."

And they are absolutely correct. Yes, you can bet as much money you have on the table. Yes, you can take drastic measures to ensure people fishing for the flush/gut-shot-or-inside straight/two-overcards/any-ace draw pay dearly by over-betting pots. Yes, you can limit the numbers of players who see a flop by betting bigger, as per the following examples:

Limp, Limp, Limp, Raise to 17
Limp, Raise to 15
UTG Raise to 16
Straddle to 4: Limp, Limp, Limp, Limp, Raise to 26 (AJ)
Raise to 8, Call, Call, Call, Call, All-In Bet (over $120) (JJ)

However, my focus is on when all those players fold in response:

The raisers get frustrated when they don't get called (I called the JJ all-in for less with AK of spades)...

Look, there is an inherent risk to playing poker. It does not matter which game you're playing: If the players drawing want to call, whether it's for correct pot odds, implied odds, because they want to see if they hit that straight flush, they will call. It does not matter how much you bet. Having said that:

You don't want to chase them out, you want them to call in those bad situations.

An open-ended straight draw on the flop is roughly 65/35 to get there by the end. Players would much rather have one card to come (4/1) than two, but that shouldn't be an excuse to let fear enter the equation. "I have to protect my hand," says the player in the lead. I argue that these players are over-protecting, like these examples:

Pot Size: $10 Player bets $12 (rainbow)
Pot Size: $20 Player bets $25 (flush draw)

And the bettors get frustrated when there is no action...when they, after the rake, get $8 or $16 profit out of it. These bets are high-risk, no-reward. The only people reasonably calling that bet either have you beat (and that memo will be hitting your desk soon) or have a big enough draw to justify it (and/or implied odds).

Then there's the "limit" portion of our tale, betting so small you're giving plenty of odds to go...or you're gathering little-to-no information from your opponents. This is hand I played a few months back at the Venetian and my low-risk decision turned into a big pot:

Stevie: 2-2        Player: 10-9

Flop: 7-2-T         Pot size: $11 (6 players, rainbow) Player bets $10, four players call
Turn: 7-2-T-8       Pot size: $57 (5 players, two hearts) Player bets $15, three players call
River: 7-2-T-8-T  Pot size: $127 (4 players) Player bets $25, Stevie raises to $180, Only the Player calls

Value-betting is nice, but giving 4-to-1 odds on a completed straight/flush draw turn card with a mediocre hand is just asking for it. In that spot, what are the odds that all three players are fishing? Chances are one person has the player beat (better 10, slow-played straight...slow-played set in my case). Worse, that river 10...didn't change anything. Inferior kicker that doesn't beat a straight and $25 tells you nothing about your opponents' strength. 6-to-1 odds, maybe an overpair calls, the better 10 will definitely call, the straight is definitely calling, possibly raising, not liking the paired card...but my full house is raising (my judgment call). To compound this, he still called $155 on top with the same potentially better hands in play. Low-risk ($27 invested before river), no-reward (lost $207 total).

My risk was losing the same $27 he invested before the river. If a four-card straight or flush card came on the river, I muck my hand none the wise about the set. If the player doesn't call the raise, none the wiser again. I could have popped it on the turn, leading to (A) possibly isolating the player or (B) the straight re-popping it, requiring me to call most likely. But I took a $27 risk that, if the boat came, I win. His small, little tiny bets (which is also a main theme in $1/2 NL), in that hand, gave him no information about his opponents...and let anyone with any sort of draw in cheap.

It's a delicate, but not that hard of a decision to make: Bet enough to keep them chasing the carrot (building a good pot when they miss), but also enough to make sure they know the stick it's on is a real threat...

No comments:

Post a Comment